Population Dynamics and Production Potential of Kebumen Ongole Grade Cattle Following Outbreaks of FMD and LSD: Implications for Premium Beef Development

Abstract

Kebumen Regency in Central Java, Indonesia, is a recognized production center for Kebumen Ongole Grade cattle with significant potential for national and premium beef development. This study aimed to assess premium beef production potential by analyzing cattle population dynamics. Secondary data from the Statistics of Kebumen Regency and the Livestock Service covering 2023–2025 were analyzed. The 2023 dataset showed that Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) and Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) led to a population decline of −1.02%. However, recovery in the next two years indicates effective disease control and highlights the strong resilience and adaptability of PO cattle. Population growth reached 3.41%, while Natural Increase (NI) was 22.11%, reflecting high reproductive performance. The Net Replacement Rate (NRR) was positive for males (80.00%) and females (232.09%), indicating adequate herd replacement capacity. The slaughter rate for meat production was 20.53% (4.71% males; 15.82% females). Based on an estimated slaughter population of 13,347 head (350 kg live weight; body condition score 3.5), carcass production was projected at 2.408 thousand tons, yielding 1.656 thousand tons of beef, including 579,52 thousand tons of premium-quality beef. These findings demonstrate that Kebumen has a high potential for sustainable premium beef production, which is supported by favorable population dynamics and disease resilience.