Predicting Agricultural Land Conversion and Socio-Economic Displacement Induced by High-Speed Rail Development: A Case Study of the Tegalluar Station, West Java

Abstract

Large-scale transportation infrastructure projects, such as the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway (JB-HSR), are known to stimulate regional economic growth. However, they also frequently generate significant spatial and socio-economic disruptions, particularly in historically agrarian peri-urban regions. In West Java, the construction of the Tegalluar Final Station exacerbated by the forthcoming Bandung Technopolis and Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) policies pose a considerable threat to local farming livelihoods through accelerated agricultural land conversion. The existing literature predominantly emphasizes macroeconomic benefits or provides retrospective evaluations of high-speed rail networks, leaving a critical gap in micro-scale predictive assessments that account for socio-economic displacement. This ongoing study seeks to forecast spatiotemporal changes in agricultural land surrounding the Tegalluar Station up to 2036 and systematically evaluate their subsequent effects on the economic resilience of traditional farming communities. A mixed-methods approach is employed to address this complex intersection. Predictive spatial modeling of Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes driven by proximity to the station is conducted using a Cellular Automata-Markov Chain (CA-Markov) analysis. Concurrently, the socio-economic implications for local livelihoods are assessed through in-depth qualitative fieldwork, with thematic shifts systematically coded and analyzed in NVivo. By ultimately integrating qualitative socio-economic variables into the built-up forecasting model, this research aims to provide a comprehensive, forward-looking framework to assist policymakers in balancing transportation-driven urbanization with socio-economic resilience in sustainable regional planning.