The exponential smoothing model for squid production in Muara Angke Fishing Port, Jakarta

This title has been presented on Thursday, December 14, 2023 at 15.50-16.00 GMT+7.

Abstract

This title has been presented on Thursday, December 14, 2023 at 15.50-16.00 GMT+7.

Squid production in Muara Angke Fishing Port supported the needs of the processing industry, the local market, and export demand through Tanjung Priok Port. However, it was often constrained, because the results of fishing in the sea was difficult to predict.  The study aimed to analyze the existing squid fishery and determine the appropriate exponential smoothing model for forecasting squid production in Muara Angke Fishing Port. The method used  descriptive analysis and single exponential smoothing analysis. Model selection was based on the results of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) tests.  Production of squid at Muara Angke Fishing Port fluctuated every year with an increasing trend. The highest production occurred in 2021 (28,572.52 tons). Bouke ami was the dominant fishing gear for catching squid with a percentage of 61.46%.  The appropriate model for forecasting squid production in Muara Angke Fishing Port was the exponential smoothing model α=0.8. This model had the lowest deviations rate compared to the exponential smoothing model α=0.2, α=0.4, and α=0.6, which were indicated by the value of MAPE = 18.92 and RMSE = 4432.34. Within in a span of 10 years, there could be 3 times the ups and downs of squid production at the Muara Angke Fishing Port.