Carbon Stock Mapping and Strategic Analysis of Low-Carbon Development Initiatives in North Konawe Regency, Indonesia

Abstract

This study examines the implementation and challenges of low-carbon development (LCD) initiatives in North Konawe Regency, Southeast Sulawesi, during the period 2019–2024. Integrating geospatial carbon stock mapping with SWOT and PESTLE analyses, the research evaluates land-use change and its implications for carbon sequestration capacity. Using Geographic Information System (GIS) tools and IPCC (2006) emission factors, carbon stock was quantified across multiple land-use categories. Results indicate a 13% increase in total carbon stock from 224.7 million tons CO₂ in 2019 to 254.4 million tons CO₂ in 2024, mainly driven by the expansion of tropical forests, which contribute over 94% of total carbon storage. Conversely, mangrove ecosystems experienced a critical decline of 80%, resulting in a carbon loss of 236,000 tons CO₂. SWOT analysis revealed significant strengths, including extensive forest cover and strong national policy support, while PESTLE analysis highlighted external challenges such as weak environmental enforcement, socioeconomic pressure, and limited regional financing. The integrated analytical framework underscores the need for a multi-stakeholder, ecosystem-based approach combining forest conservation, mangrove restoration, and sustainable land management to strengthen regional carbon resilience. These findings provide strategic insights for policymakers to design effective and sustainable mitigation programs aligned with Indonesia’s national and global climate targets.