Measuring Export Similarity in the ASEAN Agricultural Sector: Evidence from Indonesia’s Agrifood and Non-Agrifood Trade

Abstract

Agricultural trade remains a crucial pillar of ASEAN’s economic cooperation, yet the region still faces challenges in aligning its export structures across member countries. Despite ongoing integration efforts, differences in commodity composition may limit collective competitiveness in global markets. This study aims to measure and compare the similarity of Indonesia’s agricultural exports with those of other ASEAN members during 2003–2022, using the Export Similarity Index (ESI). The analysis distinguishes between agrifood products (HS 1–24) and non-agrifood commodities (HS 40–44) to capture variations in trade specialization. The results reveal that Indonesia’s export similarity is moderate, averaging 0.21 for agrifood and 0.11 for non-agrifood products. Vietnam and Myanmar exhibit higher similarity in agrifood trade, while Malaysia and Thailand show stronger alignment in non-agrifood exports. The overall agricultural similarity index reaches 0.32, indicating gradual convergence amid structural differences. These findings highlight that ASEAN’s agricultural trade integration remains uneven, emphasizing the importance of coordinated policies to strengthen value-added trade and enhance regional competitiveness.