Sustainability strategies for carbon sequestration in south Tangerang City using inVEST model to support sustainable urban planning

Abstract

Abstract. Rapid urbanization in South Tangerang City has triggered substantial conversion of green open spaces, presenting critical implications for carbon sequestration capacity within urban ecosystems. This study integrates remote sensing technology, Cellular Automata-Markov predictive modeling, and the InVEST Carbon Storage model to examine spatio-temporal dynamics of land cover and estimate carbon stocks over the 2016-2030 period. Land cover classification employing the Random Forest algorithm achieved an overall accuracy of 93.61% with a kappa coefficient of 0.874. Analysis revealed a decline in carbon stocks by 90,028 tC (9.6%) during 2016-2025, decreasing from 939,287 tC to 849,259 tC, while carbon density decreased from 64.93 tC/ha to 58.04 tC/ha. Projections toward 2030 indicate potential for further degradation without effective management interventions. Forest ecosystems maintained dominant contributions at 67.1 % of total carbon stocks in 2025 despite experiencing absolute losses of 106,336 tC. Recommended sustainability strategies encompass habitat consolidation through increased mean patch size, ecological corridor restoration, and implementation of geospatial technology-based monitoring systems. This research provides comprehensive baseline data and a replicable methodological framework to support sustainable urban planning and achievement of climate change mitigation targets.